Okay guys, hope you all are doing well. Let’s continue today’s article where I’ll share my upcoming view on the market and help you understand what’s really going on.

On exactly 9th April, I published an article explaining why I was bearish and why I was cautious about the gap fill. After that, what happened? The market moved up around 2%, then it went sideways, and now once again we are seeing weakness. During that small rally, we also got a gap-up on 15th April.

Now if you look carefully at the charts which I’ll post below, the 15th April gap has already been filled. The only important gap left now is the 8th April gap, which may or may not get filled in the coming days.

But this article is not about proving that I was right.

There is no holy grail in being right in the stock market. Many people are right and still lose money. The real skill is protecting capital when conditions are uncertain and deploying aggressively when the opportunity finally arrives.

That is what I focused on.

I stayed cautious, preserved my capital, and honestly, I’m very happy with that decision.

Now comes the important part, so read this carefully.

I believe we are slowly entering a very strong bull phase. This could be the beginning of a major bull market where fear is still high, but smart money starts positioning early. This is the phase where people sitting in cash slowly need to switch sides and start getting deployed into the market.

Not all at once. Not emotionally. But step by step.

Because a few months from now, when Nifty starts moving towards new highs — maybe even near 30,000 — that will be the moment many people will realise that the opportunity was actually during fear, confusion, and uncertainty.

The market never gives comfort at the bottom.

It gives fear at the bottom and confidence at the top.

And right now, I feel this is the time to slowly build positions, study leadership stocks, observe market behaviour, and prepare for the next big phase instead of fighting the trend.

In the next part, I’ll discuss:

• What signals I’m watching

• How I plan to deploy money

• Which sectors are showing strength

• And how to manage risk during this phase

Now many of you will ask me one question.

“What suddenly changed in just one month?”

One month ago I was bearish, sitting mostly in cash, talking about caution and gap fills. And now suddenly I’m talking about deploying money and preparing for a bull run.

So let me explain this in a very simple way.

First of all, what is a bull run?

A bull run is not when everyone on social media becomes excited. A bull run is when the market structure itself becomes strong. Technically, it is when the index starts trading above its important moving averages like the 10 DMA, 20 DMA, 50 DMA, 100 DMA and 200 DMA. That is what we call a healthy bullish structure.

And now slowly, we are moving towards that structure again.

But the bigger reason why I am becoming positive is because the broader market is already showing strength before the main index. If you observe carefully, mid-cap and small-cap stocks are already trading very close to their all-time highs.

Think about that for a second.

Even after all the fear, corrections, negative sentiment and volatility, these stocks are refusing to break down badly. Instead, they are holding strong and recovering faster than expected. This is usually what happens in the early stage of a strong market cycle.

The leaders start moving first.

And later, the index catches up.

Most people wait for headlines saying “new bull market started.” But by the time headlines confirm it, the market has already moved a lot higher. The real money is made by recognising the change in behaviour early.

That is exactly what I’m trying to do here.

I was bearish when risk was high and reward was low.

Now slowly, risk is reducing and opportunities are improving.

That does not mean I will suddenly go all-in tomorrow. It simply means I am mentally preparing myself to shift from defense mode to offense mode step by step.

Because markets reward flexibility, not ego.

If the data changes, I change.

And right now, the data is telling me that strength is quietly returning back into the market.

The biggest reason why I am backing this view is simple — price structure.

At the end of the day, opinions don’t matter. News doesn’t matter. Emotions don’t matter.

Price matters.

And if you carefully observe the market, the strongest clue is already visible. The mid-cap index has already touched its all-time high and the small-cap index is very close to it. Sooner or later, Nifty will eventually catch up too.

Leadership always comes from broader markets first.

Now let’s talk about earnings because that is another strong reason behind my bullishness.

The earning season has actually been decent. Out of the companies that declared results in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index, median PAT growth came around 24.5% while sales growth was around 13.8%. That is a healthy acceleration in growth.

Similarly, even the mid-cap space is showing strong numbers. As much as I remember, profit growth is somewhere near 27% and sales growth around 12%. I’ll attach the exact data later once I compile everything properly.

So this is not a weak market fundamentally.

This is a market where prices are strong and earnings are also supporting the move.

Now comes the most important part.

The reason I am becoming bullish is because this is a complete contra setup.

If you study history carefully, every major bull market has started when people were the most uncomfortable. Markets always move opposite to what the majority expects.

Right now, everyone has concerns.

People are worried about taxes not reducing.
People are worried about STT and LTCG.
People are worried about FIIs exiting India.
People are worried about geopolitics, wars, currency weakness, and global uncertainty.

But here’s the interesting part.

FIIs have not suddenly started selling in 2026. They have been net sellers in phases since 2020. Yet during the same period, the Indian market has gone up multiple times over.

So clearly, FII selling alone cannot decide the long-term direction of the market

And this is not unique to India.

Market performance. How many markets in that do you see " have AI"? US, the cradle, ranks at 18. NDX at 8. What AI does Brazil have? Vietnam? SAF? Spain? Greece? Turkey? Italy? Pakistan?
And look at their performance. Better than the US.

India doesn't have tech, AI or whatever else. But it NEVER had tech. Yet, markets did well for a couple of decades. How so? Domestic economy, right? But that's supposedly doing very well, based on GST , 8% growth,etc. Yet why is India at the bottom? Now that's coming up in my next article.

So FIIs never bought India because of tech. Their exit has nothing to do with tech either ( look at how well non tech markets have done as in the image).

This is why I always say:

The stock market and the economy are not the same thing.

It is one of the biggest myths in finance that a strong economy automatically means a strong stock market, or a weak economy means a weak stock market.

Markets move based on liquidity, expectations, positioning, and future pricing — not headlines.

Look around right now.

The government is asking people to reduce gold buying and avoid foreign spending.
Global conflicts are creating confusion every single day.
One day there is fear, next day there is relief.
People are talking about viruses, wars, inflation, taxes and uncertainty.

And strangely, this is exactly the environment where new bull markets are born.

Bull markets start when people don’t believe in them.

Not when everyone feels safe.

And despite all this negativity, mid-cap and small-cap charts are still showing strength. That is the biggest signal for me.

Many people are looking at Nifty and feeling bearish. But I don’t worship opinions — I worship data.

And my data is saying:

• Broader markets are near all-time highs

• Earnings growth is healthy

• Markets are absorbing heavy selling

• Fear is still high

• Yet prices are refusing to collapse

That combination is very powerful.

Yes, the market may still take one or two more months to fully stabilise. Volatility can continue. But according to me, this is the phase where smart money starts investing slowly and preparing for the next major cycle.

And if this setup plays out the way I expect, I believe Nifty can potentially see 30,000 levels by January or February 2027.

I’ll continue sharing more data and charts in the coming parts.

Now let’s talk about the biggest reason why I am comfortable taking this bet.

For me, this is a very strong risk-to-reward setup.

If I am wrong from here, I believe I might lose somewhere around 5–10%. But if this cycle plays out the way I expect, the upside can easily be 70–80% over time.

Now think about that mathematically.

I am not taking a random 50-50 gamble.

I am risking small for a potentially very large reward.

And sometimes in markets, that is all you need.

You don’t need to be right every single time. You just need situations where your downside is controlled but the upside is massive. That is exactly the kind of setup I feel we are entering into right now.

Yes, momentum might still take some time to fully build. Maybe one month, maybe two months. Markets don’t move in a straight line. There will be fear, volatility, corrections and negative news in between.

But I am very confident that we are slowly entering bull market territory.

Because the same negativity cannot keep pushing markets down forever.

After a point, bad news gets fully priced in.

And once markets stop falling on bad news, that itself becomes a bullish sign.

Right now, most of what we are seeing is unnecessary panic and emotional reaction. But markets reward systems, not emotions.

If you have data,
If you have a plan,
If you write down your process,
If you follow risk management,
And if you stop emotions from controlling your decisions,

then over a long period of time, you are bound to make money.

Now let’s come to the most important part — what exactly I am doing.

If someone is very good at stock picking, then obviously individual stocks can create massive wealth during a bull cycle. But personally, due to time constraints, I will not be able to actively manage positions and trades properly.

So instead of trying to overcomplicate things, I am choosing simplicity.

I am mainly focusing on ETFs.

Especially MOM100 and some quality mid-cap ETFs.

Why mid-caps?

Because according to my study and data, mid-caps offer one of the best balances between returns and risk.

Small-caps may give slightly higher returns during a strong rally, but their downside volatility is also much higher.

For example:

• If mid-caps go up 50%, small-caps may go up 60%

• But if mid-caps fall 5%, small-caps can easily fall 15%

That extra volatility is something I personally don’t want to handle aggressively in this phase.

So for me, mid-caps are the sweet spot.

Better growth potential than Nifty 50, but relatively safer compared to extreme small-cap moves.

That is why I am not focusing much on Nifty 50 ETFs right now. The opportunity there feels comparatively slower for my style.

No prediction game.
No overleveraging.
No emotional panic.

Just data, positioning and patience.

Disclaimer: This article is only for educational purposes and to share my personal market view. I am not a SEBI registered research analyst, so please do your own research before investing.

See you in the next article — hopefully in a strong bull market :)