On 12th January, I shared my outlook for 2026. The core themes were very clear:

• Strong bullish stance on commodities

• High cash allocation

• Extreme selectivity in high-growth companies

• Clear rule-based approach, not driven by news

Let’s revisit what happened after that — especially in silver, where price action validated everything I believe in as a trader.

Silver

Silver: A Textbook Parabolic Move and a Timely Exit

At the time of posting my outlook, I was very bullish on silver. What followed was nothing short of extraordinary.

• Silver went parabolic

• Prices surged ~60% within just a few days

• From the day of my post till 29–30 January, silver was up roughly 60%

Now here’s an important market truth many ignore:

Parabolic moves do not sustain. They always invite sharp corrections.

And this correction was inevitable.

Because I operate with pre-defined rules, I do not stay married to extended moves. When markets go vertical, the risk-reward flips. That’s when profit protection matters more than greed.

Our sell order proof

We exited silver all most near the top, not because of prediction — but because price action demanded it.

Leaving money on the table is never ideal, but giving back profits is far worse.

As expected, once the parabolic phase ended:

• Silver corrected sharply

• Prices fell nearly 40% in just two days

This is exactly why commodities require timing, not blind holding.

Updated Chart after we sold

INDEX CORRECTION

As I mentioned in my 12th January blog, volatility in the market was extremely high. That was precisely the reason I was neither aggressively bullish nor bearish at that point. Instead, I consciously chose to hold a significant amount of cash.

What followed only reinforced that view.

After my post on 12th January, the markets started reacting. Majority of the index where down approx. 4% within 4 days with the small-cap index corrected by nearly 8%, clearly indicating that opportunities were drying up and risk was increasing. The market structure itself began to signal caution.

This phase was not about chasing returns — it was about capital preservation, waiting for clarity, and allowing the market to reveal its next direction.

Budget Day, News & Noise: Why I Ignore Them Completely

Today is a budget day, but I do not trade budgets.
I do not trade news.
I do not react to headlines.

My process is simple:

• Price action must confirm

• Company results must support

• Trends must align

That’s it.

I am not a daily trader.
I am a hunter.

I take very few trades, but when I enter, I ensure the odds are heavily stacked in my favour.

What’s Next for Silver?

Let’s be very clear.

This rally in silver started in November 2025 and turned into a parabolic exhaustion move. Such moves do not restart immediately.

My view:

• Silver needs time

• It must form a base

• This process can take 4–7 months or even longer

Yes, I remain structurally bullish on silver in the long term.
But nothing meaningful will happen overnight.

Copper: Still Bullish, No Structural Damage

Despite the sharp correction in gold and silver, my view on copper remains unchanged.

• Copper is temporarily affected due to spillover sentiment

• Structurally, I see no major negativity

• I remain bullish on copper

This is one commodity where I still see strength once volatility settles.

Equities: Selective, Not Aggressive

Liquidity that exits commodities has to go somewhere.

India remains a strong emerging market, and I do expect:

• Decent opportunities in equities

• But not a broad, runaway rally

The index may stay range-bound, but:

• Selective, high-growth companies will outperform

• Stock selection will matter more than index direction

No bull market can start if index is below the key moving averages.

Cash: An Underrated Asset in Uncertain Times

One of my strongest convictions right now:

Cash is a position.

When uncertainty is high and clarity is low:

• Cash protects capital

• Cash provides flexibility

• Cash creates opportunity

Nothing is certain in markets — and that’s exactly why cash should be a meaningful part of the portfolio right now.

So this is my current view on the Indian markets.
Markets will keep testing patience, and clarity will come only with time and price confirmation. Until then, discipline, selectivity, and capital protection remain my top priorities.
Thank you for your continued support and for taking the time to read my blogs. Your trust and engagement mean a lot. I’ll continue sharing my honest market views as things evolve.

Please note: All views shared here are strictly for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice. Please do your own research or consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.